The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.Hong Kong's autos market has experienced three years of sharp fluctuations in annual growth through 2011. While unit sales, unit imports and market value all contracted significantly in 2009, the overall market saw a robust recovery in the following year. However, BMI's data shows that the growth in Hong Kong's autos market slowed sharply in 2011 in the face of strong rates in the previous year.
For 2012 we see much of the same for the sector, although with several interesting yet mild shifts in growth. BMI expects to see total passenger car sales to continue growing in 2012 but with growth dipping to 3.92% to 34,668 units. On the other hand, we expect total commercial vehicle sales growth to accelerate to 9.44% (from 4.38%), taking total units to 4,196 and marking the highest volume since 2008. Meanwhile, total imports are expected to increase by 5.61% to 36,328 units. BMI sees the value of total vehicle sales in Hong Kong reaching HKD12.33bn (US$1.59bn) by the end of 2012.
Hong Kong's real GDP growth met our expectations, with a y-o-y expansion of 3.2% in Q411 taking fullyear growth to 5.0%. On a seasonally-adjusted basis however, real GDP growth strengthened from 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 0.3% from the third quarter. In what is a clear reliance on the city's export sector, a 0.9% q-o-q growth in the good exports helped to mitigate effects of the global downturn that saw growth across private and government consumption; and service exports growth either slow or contract.
In 2012, we expect Hong Kong's economy to deteriorate markedly, in tandem with our expectations for weaker economic activity, both globally and in China. We have thus revised our real GDP growth forecast down to 2.2% from 3.0% previously. Meanwhile, as a number of companies continue looking to Asian markets to hedge against weaker outlooks in developed markets, Peugeot announced in February 2012 that it planned to again sell its vehicles in Hong Kong. The campaign will see the French firm launch the 5008 MPV, 3008 SUV and RCZ sports car in the city, marking a return to the market after a three-year absence. The automaker plans to rekindle its partnership with Sime Darby, which will handle imports.
Similarly, UK-based specialist automaker Morgan Motor Company said in December 2011 that it intends to include an outlet in Hong Kong in its targeting of China to boost sales. After having been approached by a number of Chinese dealerships, the company is attempting to hedge against uncertain demand in traditional markets by offering its M3W three-wheeler on the mainland and in Hong Kong. The model will be offered through a Harley Davidson outlet in Hong Kong, while being offered in outlets in Beijing and Shanghai. Morgan is aiming to sell a minimum of 50 units in the first year, reaching 150 units after three years. By the end of our forecast period in 2016, we expect Hong Kong's auto sakes to be worth HKD15.69bn (US$2.01bn).
Click for Report details:Hong Kong Autos Report Q2 2012
