The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
We have revised our 2012 forecast for Swiss real GDP growth. Following estimated 2011 growth of 1.9%, our significantly bleaker outlook for the global economy means we now forecast headline growth of 0.8% in 2012. This is slightly higher than our previous 2012 forecast of 0.6% growth as we expect stronger investment outlook to support real GDP growth. The Swiss National Bank has set a ceiling on the Swiss franc's value versus the euro in the face of substantial appreciatory pressure from the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This will help to protect the country's export sector from a severe loss of competitiveness and thereby limit the impact of external turbulence on near-term economic growth. However, the massive scale of monetary easing involved in such foreign exchange intervention could dramatically inflate property prices if maintained into the medium term.Major Forecast Changes
The Swiss economy's trade flows continue to be hampered by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis; as export growth remains muted in coming quarters, the country's economic growth will very likely remain weak. That said, resilient Swiss domestic demand will support economic activity. We therefore have modestly revised up our 2012 headline growth forecast to 0.8%, from 0.6% previously, as we expect slightly stronger fixed investment growth. We stick to our 1.8% real GDP growth forecast for 2013.Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Risks To Real Growth Forecasts: If the situation in the eurozone continues to deteriorate without mitigating action from eurozone policymakers, a regional financial crisis akin to that seen in 2008 may result. Such an outcome would have a severe impact upon global growth, hitting the Swiss export sector and by extension real GDP growth. A 2012 recession cannot be ruled out given the risk of a significant eurozone policy mistake in the months ahead.
Click for Report details:Switzerland Business Forecast Report Q3 2012