The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

Venezuela faces major political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of the October 2012 presidential elections. Rampant monetary stimulus and a relatively weak foreign reserve position mean a devaluation following the election is highly likely. Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Major Forecast Changes

We have moderately revised up our 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, from 2.3% previously, as high oil prices will very likely allow the government to drive domestic demand a head of the October presidential ballot. Strong oil prices have encouraged us to revise up our 2012 current account surplus forecast to 7.4% of GDP, from 6.4% previously, although we believe that capital flight will keep downside pressure on the country's reserve levels.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher than expected oil prices and more aggressive monetary stimulus could see real GDP growth exceed our moderate 2.5% forecast in 2012.

Downside Risks: Huge uncertainty surrounding policy trajectory beyond the election poses a significant downside risk to our growth forecast.

Click for Report details:Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q3 2012