The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
Despite the current slow-down in the performance of the country's key export partners, we expect Kazakhstan's private consumption growth forecast of 3.5% in the course of 2012 to be fulfilled. Our forecast is underpinned by factors such as the increase in average wages, low unemployment (at 5.5% in February 2012), and the strong retail trade growth, which came in at 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms in the same month. The development of food and drinks values will be further boosted by the gradual expansion of the organised retail outside key urban areas.
Headline Industry Data (local currency, compound annual growth rate)
- 2012 per capita food consumption: +9.3%; forecast to 2016: +10.7%
- 2012 alcoholic drink value sales: +14.8%; forecast to 2016: +13.8%
- 2012 soft drink value sales: +15.4%; forecast to 2016: +16.3%
Key Industry Trends
And Developments Kazakhstan Looking to Expand its Export Reach: In April 2012, the presidents of Indonesia and Kazakhstan met to discuss their countries' cooperation in a variety of industrial fields, as reported by Kazinform. Both countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, and are looking to capitalise on the subsequent increase in commercial opportunities for exported products. Key areas slated for further discussions include agriculture (with Kazakhstan looking to export grain and grain-based products to Indonesia), food industry and energy, among a number of others.
Key Risks To Outlook
Elevated Energy Prices Positing Upside Risks to GDP Growth: As an oil-exporting nation, Kazakhstan is set to benefit from elevated global energy prices in 2012, posing upside risks to our below-consensus 2012 headline growth forecast of 5.8%. However, the expected weak growth of Kazakhstan's key export partners may counterbalance any benefits associated with higher average oil prices. Similarly, political and security risks remain elevated, weighing down the country's investment potential.
Click for Report details:Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q3