The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

The outlook for Greek agriculture remains bleak Across almost all product categories analysed within the country, we are forecasting flat or declining output as the dire macroeconomic situation and tough credit conditions continue to take their toll We expect smaller producers to remain under enormous pressure, although the impact will be felt across the production spectrum Over the medium term, we are somewhat optimistic about the Greek dairy sector, with this outlook largely predicated on prospects for exporting to high-growth emerging markets

Key Forecasts

- We have revised down our forecast for 2011/12 Greek sugar production and now expect output growth of 12 0%, down from a previous forecast of 20% growth A lack of investment, weak credit conditions and deteriorating domestic demand will continue to weigh on output

- We have also revised down our forecast for 2012/13 cheese production, now forecasting 1 5% growth compared with a previous forecast of 4 3% growth While we expect emerging market demand for Greek dairy products to help to sustain investment in the sector, tough operating conditions will keep growth to a minimum

- Similarly, we have revised down our forecasts for Greek cheese consumption We previously expected 1 5% growth in cheese demand in 2013; however, we now expect demand to remain flat With dairy playing a significant part in the Greek diet, we note that demand is slightly more inelastic Nonetheless, consumption will be hit by economic weakness

- We have left our grains consumption forecasts unchanged We maintain a fairly uninspiring growth outlook, with grains demand largely linked to our livestock production forecasts

- We expect livestock production to remain under pressure and have maintained our growth forecasts for this quarter Poultry, owing to its relative affordability compared with pork and poultry, will be the outperformer in both production and consumption terms

Industry Developments

The macroeconomic outlook for Greece has deteriorated further in recent weeks The Greek parliamentary election held on May 6 failed to provide New Democracy and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement with sufficient seats to form a credible and workable government The scenarios from here are bleak A failure of the previous government partners to broker a deal with a smaller party could see a coalition of radical anti-austerity parties take hold, or more likely a fresh election with an equally uncertain result Either way, the likelihood of Greece staying inside the eurozone looks ever more untenable

Amid a very bleak production and consumption outlook, we do note that we have a fairly positive medium-term outlook for the Greek dairy sector, largely based on its international potential, particularly in high-growth emerging markets Greek dairy manufacturers have already enjoyed a degree of international success, and weak domestic demand conditions are only accelerating their international expansion

Click for Report details:Greece Agribusiness Report Q3 2012