Our forecasts for Nigerian growth remain unchanged at 7.6% for both 2012 and 2013, buoyed by an anticipated surge in investment as well as a robust outlook for the consumer sector.
Political risk will be of central importance in the beginning of 2012, with tensions between some factions of the Christian and Muslim communities escalated by the violent actions of Boko Haram, and public discontent over the removal of fuel subsidies.Major Forecast Changes
Based on newly available data and our Oil & Gas teams revised outlook for the hydrocarbons sector, we have made some downward revisions to our current account forecasts. We have now pencilled in a surplus of 11.4% of GDP in 2012 (down from 12.9% previously). We have incorporated the recently released budget into our fiscal forecasts. We expect the fiscal deficit to narrow in 2012 to 2.5% of GDP, compared to 3.1% in 2011.Key Risks To Outlook
Uncertainty in Europe, the US, China and other major economies could adversely affect the demand and price of oil, Nigerias major export and generator of government revenue.
If industrial action opposing the removal of fuel subsidies persists, it could adversely affect productivity and investment. However, if the government yields to rising pressure to back down from its reforms, this could harm its mandate for transformational change and its ability to enact much-needed improvements.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
Click for Report details:Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q2 2012