The port of Varna is set to slow down its growth in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2012 after demonstrating impressive dynamics in 2011.
As macroeconomic climate worsens, with Bulgaria projected to post negative growth for the year and country's exports to eurozone exposed to the latter's economic woes, throughput levels at the country's main maritime gateway are expected to slow, also affected by extreme weather conditions at the start of the year.
Over the medium term we project more pronounced growth at the port of Varna as the growth picks in Bulgaria and in eurozone.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2%, over the medium term we project an 18% increase.
- 2012 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 1%, over the medium term we project a 24% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 1.55%.
Key Industry Trends
River Takes Larger Stake but Modernisation Required
Bulgaria is planning to launch a tender for the 35-year concession of one of its Danube River ports, the Vidin-South port terminal. BMI highlights that Bulgaria is increasing its use of its waterways and to diversify into this mode further requires its river ports to be modernised.
Risks to Outlook
In the short term, the risk for the port of Varna's throughput is to the downside, the closure of the port for part of February due to icy conditions will have in BMI's view interrupted operations and will have had a negative impact on throughput. We also highlight the downside risk attached to a deepening in the eurozone crisis. Currently, a projected recession in the eurozone will lead to a projected slowing in throughput growth at Bulgaria's ports in 2012. A steeper decline in the eurozone would have a negative impact on throughput, however, with about 60% of the country's exports heading to the EU.
Over the medium term, we highlight the entry of a private port operator in Bulgaria would offer upside risk to our forecasts, but as we have highlighted there is little to attract a potential investor to the country's port sector at present.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
Click for Report details:Bulgaria Shipping Report Q4 2012