The season for travel headaches (see our Thanksgiving Travel Forecast HERE
), gorged stomachs, and shopping hysteria is upon us. In a little under a week we’ll be working off our Thanksgiving Day meal in the great Black Friday rush to snag the best deal in town. While foot traffic is mainly driven by who has the most enticing sales, the weather will also play an important role in driving traffic.
Shoppers will be lining up in the wee hours of the morning, or maybe even earlier this year as some stores are opening late on Thanksgiving Day, but some will be surprised to find that they can leave the heavy coats and extra layers at home. Mild air will dominate the Eastern 2/3rds of the nation as it has done for much of the month so far. The morning of Black Friday will start off with temperatures in the 30s and 40s for the Northeast to the 50s for much of the Southeast, which is still chilly (remember, it’s November) but nowhere near as cold as it should or could be this time of year. A different story will play out on the West Coast where temperatures will be below normal, requiring shoppers in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles to bundle up more than usual. Temperatures will range from the 30s to the 40s for early morning shoppers on the West Coast and going up into the 50s for the late-risers.
For most of us, we’ll luck out this Black Friday with relatively mild weather, but precipitation could throw a wrench in the plans for some. While it’s still too early to pinpoint exact areas of precipitation, the South Central U.S. and Northwest look to be the most likely areas getting wet. In the mild South Central, the precipitation will be plain rain, but in the chilly Northwest there will be mountain snow and valley rain. Elsewhere, shoppers will be delighted with dry weather which will make the hours-long wait outside the stores much more tolerable. Dry weather will help to bring larger crowds in general, but wet weather will move more of the crowds to indoor shopping malls.
Here’s a breakdown of the weather by region for Black Friday (see map HERE
Dry and relatively mild weather for this time of year will be a shopper’s delight. Temperatures in the pre-dawn hours will range from the low 30s and possibly some upper 20s across Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Farther south, temperatures will range from the low to mid 40s to start the shopping day. Temperatures will climb during the day from the upper 40s to even a few 60s in the southern most reaches of the region like Baltimore.
Shoppers may be dodging a few drops in parts of the Southeast, especially areas closer to the west. Temperatures will start the day off anywhere from the upper 40s in the north to the upper 60s in southern Florida. High temperatures will reach into the lower 60s to 80s.
Some rain may sneak up into the North Central region, but otherwise much of the region will remain dry. Temperatures will be traditionally chilly in the north with the Dakotas and northern Minnesota starting the day out in the teens to 20s with lows in the 40s farther to the south in Indiana. Temperatures will max out only in the 30s for the chillier northern locations to nearly 60 degrees in the southern cities.
Rain may slow down shoppers in the eastern part of the South Central U.S. Early morning temperatures will drop into the upper 30s in parts of Kansas to near 60 in southern Texas and Louisiana. Black Friday will end up being a mild day for most with temperatures from the upper 50s to low 80s.
Cold and wet weather will make for an unpleasant shopping experience in the Northwest. While the valleys will see rain, the higher elevations will see some snow. Temperatures will start out in the upper 20s to 30s and rise only into the 40s for most.
: Rain and mountain snow in northern California will be a downer for holiday shoppers, but the rest of the region stays dry. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with morning lows in the 20s in northern California and Nevada to the 40s in far southern cities. Highs will reach only the 40s in the north and nearly 70 degrees in the south.
Looking for a specific location’s Black Friday forecast? Find it on www.wt360.com . Happy Shopping!
About Weather Trends International
Weather Trends International (WTI) is the global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial analysts and consumers worldwide. The company’s business-to-business clients include some of the world’s most respected and successful companies such as Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Target, AutoZone, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, Clorox, Energizer, 3M, JP Morgan and Hershey’s. Its business-centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk.” Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, WTI’s unique, statistical, math-based forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends up to a year ahead for 6.4 million locations in all 195 countries with industry-leading 80%+ accuracy (as verified in an independent audit by Forecast Watch). The company has received 12 business and technology awards and in 2009 was listed #5 on Forbes’ list of America’s Most Promising Companies. WTI is headquartered in Bethlehem, PA with offices in Bentonville, AR. For more information, visit www.wxtrends.com or www.wt360.com.